I don't know what's going on with the John McCain campaign in Montana because I never hear from it. But I do know at least some of what is going on with the Barack Obama campaign because just about every day I get an e-mail, a piece of mail or a phone call from the campaign. The campaign has a fairly nonstop stream of organizational meetings and get-out-the-vote sessions going on, and it checks in regularly to make sure we know what's up.
I don't know what all of that will mean in November, but if I had to judge this race solely on the basis of what crosses my desk, I would guess that Obama was about 90 percentage points ahead.
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4 comments:
David,
Guess what? According to one aggregate polling site I just checked, Obama and McCain are in a virtual dead heat in Montana: 45% for McCain, 44% for Obama.
Source: http://www.usaelectionpolls.com/2008/general-election/electoral-college-results.html
This independent voter joins in the chorus of wondering: why, with all of his supposed advantages, can't Obama seal the deal?
Great question. Are Obama's campaign workers laying groundwork for an unstoppable post-convention surge? Or are they trying to sell a product that nobody is going to buy?
A certain decline in Obama's favorability ratings was no doubt inevitable once some of the newness wore off the toy. But he may be just too liberal and too Democratic to catch on here.
Meanwhile, local talk radio donates 15 hours a day or so of unrebutted anti-Obama time to the Republican Party. Sometimes I wonder if any human being could survive that onslaught.
Dennis, I should add an observation I have made elsewhere. Obama's "supposed advantages" aren't quite what they appear. He is a traditional big-city liberal Democrat running against a war hero Republican from the West with a mostly conservative voting record and vastly more experience. One might as well ask, why can't McCain seal the deal?
David,
Good points all, and I'm in agreement with you for the most part.
However, what others have pointed out is that given enormous discontent with the Republican Party in general and George Bush in particular, McCain should be toast. Instead, he's hanging in there.
Meanwhile, I read in many places about Obama fatique setting in. People being told, in so many words (see Nancy Pelosi), that he's God's answer to all of America's woes, the chosen one, etc.
Guess the old cliche still applies: the only poll that really matters is on Election Day.
Dennis
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