I'm no believer in online polls, but it is interesting to note that the Outpost online poll picked the exact order of finish of the six candidates in the mayor's race. We won the hexfecta.
Ron Tussing did considerably better online than in the actual election (47 percent vs. 34 percent), which is consistent with my theory that Tussing supporters are more passionate about their candidate than other voters. Online polls tend to reflect passion more than actual votes. All that passion probably helped Tussing in the primary, but it could hurt him in November if the anti-Tussing forces, with only one other candidate to concentrate on, become as passionate as his supporters are now.
Tussing's online margin came mostly at the expense of Larry Brewster, who did twice as well in the actual primary as in the online poll. Again, that would be consistent with my theory: I don't think anyone felt terribly passionate about
Brewster.
Al Garver, Cliff Hanson and David Bovee all had online results that, when compared to actual votes, would fall within a typical margin of error for a scientific poll. Michael Larson did better at the polls than online, but his totals were so low in both places that the result probably is just an artifact.
So it's Garver vs. Tussing in November. I picked both of the guys to advance, so I might as well go all out and pick again: Garver. Why? Money, for one thing. Garver knows how to get it and how to spend it. Plus, Tuesday's results weren't exactly a repudiation of the incumbent council. Don Jones, Ed Ulledalen and Chris "Shoots" Veis all led their primary races. For all the complaints about how the council handled Tussing's dispute with the city administrator, incumbents (except maybe Brewster) didn't suffer for it.
Finally, I'm sticking by my theory in the second graph. Tussing arouses the strongest emotions, both pro and con, of any candidate in the race. There's no way to know how many votes cast in the primary were really "anti-Tussing" votes, but my guess is that there are enough out there to give Garver the victory.
One caveat: I've only glanced at the precinct-by-precinct totals, but it appears that Tussing did consistently well across nearly all of the city. That could bode well for him.
UPDATE: The Montana News Association seems to have pulled its online poll in the mayor's race, but the last time I checked Tussing had, if memory serves, 1.2 percent of the vote. Now that's sampling error.
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22 comments:
I couldn't agree more on all points Tony.
How it it that someone who claims to be from Nebraska has a Chicago accent.
David it was a very unusual primary all-around. I was the first council candidate to file, and if I had known what a circus it would become I wouldn't have filed at all.
Lots of distractions - 1st, whether-or-not the Chief is breaking his severance agreement, whether-or-not my barber (Michael) is eligible to serve, the ACLU lawsuit, etc.
I think that Al Garver will be our next mayor, because he will pick up many of the voters that the other candidates had support from.
I think that unless the GAZETTE really gives them a push from behind that the appointed incumbents will lose also.
In Ward 3, Rich McFadden & myself split up the anti-Tooley vote, and I'm encouraging my supporters to vote for Rich. The only way he can lose is if the GAZETTE torpedoes him.
Some interesting comments, Eric. One can only wonder how a convicted felon under State Supervision can pull down 29.28% of the vote in Ward 2...
I think Uriah Edmunds was a second-tier candidate, vs. a couple of first-tier candidates in Ward 2.
Let's keep it in perspective - It was just a primary, for a thankless job.
I don't have a burning desire to serve, or a hunger for power, and I can't justify spending hundreds or thousands of dollars on it.
I think the circus is just beginning.
Eric, you give the Gazette so much credit! Exactly how would the Gazette go about torpedoing a candidate, by endorsing him, or endorsing his opponent?
Eric, If you didnt have a burning desire to serve then maybe its just as well, the job takes 30-40 hours a week. I really do think you are sincere and your heart is in the right place...other candidates I am not so sure about. A couple are single issue candidates, others are shilling for special interests and one is supplementing his MPC/NWE pension...
Well Ed, in 2003, the GAZETTE pumped their candidates not once, but twice, including the Sunday before the election, giving them high marks for 'vision' & 'leadership' that obviously they really didn't have. And to top it off, some of the endorsements were made before the candidate interviews took place, in that the person voting against Rod Hein wasn't even in the room when he was interviewed. Bu this is water under the bridge now - let's see if the GAZETTE is still under the influence of 'Tooleyism' or not!
MAry Jo Fox pontificates, "Mark O'Keefe outspent his opponent for governor four times over. Money helps, but it's not the final word if the suit is empty."
According to Mike Erickson, you own one of the most expensive houses in the Valley. Its a lot easier to do the work of the Lord when you have a rich lawyer for an ex-husband doesnt it?
anonymous sure makes alot of assumptions about mfox. has mike erickson ever actually priced the houses in the valley? and is he privy to mfox's tax returns? the reason I hate to post on blogs anymore is the small minds who do take no ownership of their comments.
So a nice house couldn't possibly be purchased by a woman on her own, with her own money? Well, welcome to the new millenium. I'm a good friend of Ms. Fox and not that it's anyone's business, she's a successful political consultant for a lobbying firm in Washington, DC, besides working for a local non profit, besides serivng on the school board and teaching Sunday school at Harvest. Since when is being a successful woman something to be ashamed of? I think the coward who wrote that is misogynist asshole. Leave my friend alone!
Was Uriah shilling for Mary Jo or the other way around? I knew something was up when he came out of nowhere to run for City COuncil.
According to "Scott Miller" in Today's paper, " Al Garver is nearing completion of a small city (defined as under 100,000 residents) and rural county management degree from Eastern Oregon University, through its distance education program. This degree is specifically designed for city managers, mayors and county commissioners.
The course work for this degree includes managerial accounting, nonprofit and governmental accounting, cartography, land use and environmental planning and a number of political science courses. Some of these courses required Garver to attend governmental meetings in Billings, including zoning and City Council meetings, as a practical application of the course work. He also completed a study of the city/county growth plan and capital improvement plan as part of this degree work.
Sounds impressive, the only problem is, I can find NO reference to this degree program at EOU. Mr. Miller is either lying or Garver is working on a self designed liberal studies Mcdegree and Miller is putting the big spin on it. Lets hear from the Garver Camp on this! How about posting the URl to this degree program?
Well now-I will address this one comment:
Anonymous said...
Some interesting comments, Eric. One can only wonder how a convicted felon under State Supervision can pull down 29.28% of the vote in Ward 2..
Mr. Merriman at least have the courage to put you name on it at least Mike has both the courage and the insight to at least make a change for what he thinks is right.
You sir have neither! Just a lot of crap and that comes from one who is living on public assistance AND taking money because you don't seem to be able to work for a living.
12&12 about step 2.
"Just resign from the debating society and quit bothering yourself with such deep questions as whether it was the hen or the egg that came first." (about what God and sanity are.)
"The fact is that we had not cleaned house so the Grace of God could enter."
I've always supported Joy Stevens for City Council. Her sign is in my yard and I went door to door for her before the primary. She'll make an excellent council member. If Uriah had asked me for advice, I would have advised him not to trash a councilperson who won by better than 60% in Ward 2 and also not to trash all those who wanted to keep Pow Wow Park natural. He offended a lot of people in one fell swoop in his Gazette essay. Not too politically astute, but he's a nice person.
It was never in doubt that Joy Stevens would win handily in Ward 2. She's well known, well liked and her signs were well placed. She also went door-to-door and I don't think Uriah did much.
A mail order mayor for Billings? I think not.
A cop who's made a bad mayor in Montana, or anywhere for that matter, Tony? Do tell. Everyone knows you've had your panties in a bunch over Tussing from way back. Your opinion is hardly worth the cyberspace it occupies.
ha ha I thought that was funny too, Tony the judge and jury describing unstable for the rest of us and leaving himself out.
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